The Prediction Markets

How long will Trump and Xi shake hands at APEC?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 19 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

6–10s 29%

Next is 10–15s at 23.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

6–10s 29%10–15s 23.9%2–6s 21.5%2s 8.9%No Handshake 7.5%2 others 9.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
6–10s
29%
Polymarket 31%(29% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
6–10s
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Polymarket
10–15s
23.9%
Polymarket 25.5%(23.9% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
10–15s
Last price
25.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Polymarket
2–6s
21.5%
Polymarket 23%(21.5% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
2–6s
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
2s
8.9%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.9% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2s
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Polymarket
No Handshake
7.5%
Polymarket 8%(7.5% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Handshake
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Polymarket
15s+
7%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
15s+
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
Photographed only
2.2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Photographed only
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 6–10s
  • 10–15s
  • 2–6s

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How long will Trump and Xi shake hands at APEC?". 6–10s leads at 29%. Next is 10–15s at 23.9%. $1K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during this visit. Any handshake recorded during the visit will qualify. For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. If no handshake occurs during the visit, or if Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released during the calendar days (China Standard Time) of the visit to qualify. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (China Standard Time) that Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the visit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. The resolution source will be video footage.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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