The Prediction Markets

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 24 days
Traded
$1.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Below 4.82% 72.5%

Next is 4.75% or above at 61%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Below 4.82%
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.82%
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$534
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75% or above
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 4.79%
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.79%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.76%
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.76%
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
5% or above
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 4.73%
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.73%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.64%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.64%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.70%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.70%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
5.1% or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.15% or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Below 4.67%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.67%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Polymarket
5.25% or above
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 4.57%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.57%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.61%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.61%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
6,300 or below
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,300 or below
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
13.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$258K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.5% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
6,100 or below
7.7%
Kalshi 7.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,100 or below
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.75% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Kalshi
6,200 or below
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,200 or below
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$118K
Trade this on Kalshi
6,000 or below
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,000 or below
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$158K
Trade this on Kalshi
5,900 or below
4.8%
Kalshi 4.8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5,900 or below
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$378K
Trade this on Kalshi
6% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance, U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Below 4.82%
  • 4.75% or above
  • Below 4.79%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Below 4.82% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?". Below 4.82% leads at 72.5%. Next is 4.75% or above at 61%. $1.1M has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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