The Prediction Markets

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$1.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

4.75% or above 68%

Next is Below 5.08% at 61.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
4.75% or above
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 5.08%
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 5.08%
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 5.05%
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 5.05%
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 5.02%
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 5.02%
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 5.11%
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 5.11%
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
5% or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 5.20%
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 5.20%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
5.1% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 5.17%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 5.17%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 5.14%
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 5.14%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
5.15% or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.25% or above
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 4.99%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.99%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$82
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.96%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.96%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
6,300 or below
7.6%
Kalshi 7.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,300 or below
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$248K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.75% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Kalshi
6,000 or below
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,000 or below
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$158K
Trade this on Kalshi
6,200 or below
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,200 or below
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
6,100 or below
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
6,100 or below
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Kalshi
5,900 or below
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
5,900 or below
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$375K
Trade this on Kalshi
6% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: For example, Google Finance, U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.75% or above
  • Below 5.08%
  • Below 5.05%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 4.75% or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November?". 4.75% or above leads at 68%. Next is Below 5.08% at 61.5%. $1.0M has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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