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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
4.65% or below 99%
Next is 4.66% or below at 99%. The venues differ most on 4.49 (Polymarket 39%, Kalshi 51.5%), a 13-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.65% or below99%Not listed99%98¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.65% or below99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
4.65% or below
99%
Not listed
99%
98¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.65% or below
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.65% or below
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
4.66% or below99%Not listed99%98¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.66% or below99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
4.66% or below
99%
Not listed
99%
98¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.66% or below
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.66% or below
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
4.67% or below97.5%Not listed97.5%95¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.67% or below97.5%Kalshi 97.5%polled, 1 min ago
4.67% or below
97.5%
Not listed
97.5%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.67% or below
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.67% or below
- Last price
- 97.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
4.68% or below97%Not listed97%97¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 1 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)4.68% or below97%Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
4.68% or below
97%
Not listed
97%
97¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
4.68% or below
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.68% or below
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $4
4.64% or below96%Not listed96%96¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)4.64% or below96%Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
4.64% or below
96%
Not listed
96%
96¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
4.64% or below
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.64% or below
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $2
4.62% or below94%Not listed94%88¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.62% or below94%Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min ago
4.62% or below
94%
Not listed
94%
88¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.62% or below
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.62% or below
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 88¢
4.61% or below90.5%Not listed90.5%81¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.61% or below90.5%Kalshi 90.5%polled, 1 min ago
4.61% or below
90.5%
Not listed
90.5%
81¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.61% or below
90.5%
Kalshi 90.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.61% or below
- Last price
- 90.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
4.6% or below86%Not listed86%74¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 1 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)4.6% or below86%Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
4.6% or below
86%
Not listed
86%
74¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
4.6% or below
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.6% or below
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
4.63% or below82%Not listed82%82¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)4.63% or below82%Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
4.63% or below
82%
Not listed
82%
82¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
4.63% or below
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.63% or below
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $2
4.59% or below73%Not listed73%73¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 1 min ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)4.59% or below73%Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
4.59% or below
73%
Not listed
73%
73¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
4.59% or below
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.59% or below
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $2
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
4.56% or below69.5%Not listed69.5%58¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, 1 min ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)4.56% or below69.5%Kalshi 69.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.56% or below
69.5%
Not listed
69.5%
58¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.56% or below
69.5%
Kalshi 69.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.56% or below
- Last price
- 69.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
4.54% or below65.5%Not listed65.5%54¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 1 min ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)4.54% or below65.5%Kalshi 65.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
4.54% or below
65.5%
Not listed
65.5%
54¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
4.54% or below
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.54% or below
- Last price
- 65.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
4.55Polymarket: “Below 4.56%”, Kalshi: “4.55% or below”59.8%65%63¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, just now57%57¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 1 min ago67¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $149 (1.49x)4.5559.8%Polymarket 65%polled, just nowKalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.55
Polymarket: “Below 4.56%”, Kalshi: “4.55% or below”
59.8%
65%
63¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, just now
57%
57¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
67¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.55
59.8%
Polymarket 65%polled, just nowKalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.56%
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
- Volume
- $226
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.55% or below
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $431
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 57¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 67¢.
4.53% or below59.5%Not listed59.5%47¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)4.53% or below59.5%Kalshi 59.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.53% or below
59.5%
Not listed
59.5%
47¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.53% or below
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.53% or below
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
4.52Polymarket: “Below 4.53%”, Kalshi: “4.52% or below”59.3%61.5%54¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, just now57%44¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 1 min ago69¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $145 (1.45x)4.5259.3%Polymarket 61.5%polled, just nowKalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
4.52
Polymarket: “Below 4.53%”, Kalshi: “4.52% or below”
59.3%
61.5%
54¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, just now
57%
44¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
69¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
4.52
59.3%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, just nowKalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.53%
- Last price
- 61.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $61
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.52% or below
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 70¢.
4.5% or below51.5%Not listed51.5%37¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 1 min ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)4.5% or below51.5%Kalshi 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
4.5% or below
51.5%
Not listed
51.5%
37¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
4.5% or below
51.5%
Kalshi 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.5% or below
- Last price
- 51.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
4.57% or below50%Not listed50%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo ask4.57% or below50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.57% or below
50%
Not listed
50%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
4.57% or below
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min ago
4.58Polymarket: “Below 4.59%”, Kalshi: “4.58% or below”48.9%48.5%8¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, just now50%29¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $112 (1.12x)4.5848.9%Polymarket 48.5%polled, just nowKalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4.58
Polymarket: “Below 4.59%”, Kalshi: “4.58% or below”
48.9%
48.5%
8¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, just now
50%
29¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4.58
48.9%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, just nowKalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.59%
- Last price
- 48.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $158
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.58% or below
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $1
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 89¢.
4.51% or below48%Not listed48%— bid, 96¢ askpolled, 1 min ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)4.51% or below48%Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
4.51% or below
48%
Not listed
48%
— bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
4.51% or below
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.51% or below
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Below 4.44%47.5%47.5%32¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed63¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $159 (1.59x)Below 4.44%47.5%Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Below 4.44%
47.5%
47.5%
32¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
63¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Below 4.44%
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.44%
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $130
4.49Polymarket: “Below 4.50%”, Kalshi: “4.49% or below”45.3%39%5¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, just now51.5%38¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 1 min ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)4.4945.3%Polymarket 39%polled, just nowKalshi 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.49
Polymarket: “Below 4.50%”, Kalshi: “4.49% or below”
45.3%
39%
5¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, just now
51.5%
38¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.49
45.3%
Polymarket 39%polled, just nowKalshi 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.50%
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $100
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.49% or below
- Last price
- 51.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 38¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 73¢.
4.46Polymarket: “Below 4.47%”, Kalshi: “4.46% or below”42%51%45¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, just now39%39¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 1 min ago57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)4.4642%Polymarket 51%polled, just nowKalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.46
Polymarket: “Below 4.47%”, Kalshi: “4.46% or below”
42%
51%
45¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, just now
39%
39¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.46
42%
Polymarket 51%polled, just nowKalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.47%
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $81
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.46% or below
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $464
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 39¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.
Below 4.41%39.5%39.5%26¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed53¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $189 (1.89x)Below 4.41%39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Below 4.41%
39.5%
39.5%
26¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
53¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Below 4.41%
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.41%
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $70
Below 4.37%34%34%22¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Below 4.37%34%Polymarket 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Below 4.37%
34%
34%
22¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Below 4.37%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.37%
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $121
4.48% or below33%Not listed33%33¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)4.48% or below33%Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4.48% or below
33%
Not listed
33%
33¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
4.48% or below
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.48% or below
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $228
Below 4.33%28.5%28.5%13¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Below 4.33%28.5%Polymarket 28.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Below 4.33%
28.5%
28.5%
13¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Below 4.33%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.33%
- Last price
- 28.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $91
4.47% or below27%Not listed27%27¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 1 min ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)4.47% or below27%Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
4.47% or below
27%
Not listed
27%
27¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
4.47% or below
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.47% or below
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $467
4.45% or below24%Not listed24%24¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 1 min ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)4.45% or below24%Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
4.45% or below
24%
Not listed
24%
24¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
4.45% or below
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.45% or below
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $478
No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads
Mostly the same bet: 4 differences
Where they differ
- Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
- Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
- Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
- Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 30, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
- Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
- Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
- Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 30, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.65% or below
- 4.66% or below
- 4.67% or below
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list 4.65% or below for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?". 4.65% or below leads at 99%. Next is 4.66% or below at 99%. $3K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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