The Prediction Markets

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

4.9% or below 73.5%

Next is 4.89% or below at 70%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
4.9% or below
73.5%
Kalshi 73.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.9% or below
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.89% or below
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.89% or below
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.88% or below
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.88% or below
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
4.87% or below
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.87% or below
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.86% or below
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.86% or below
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.85% or below
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.85% or below
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.84% or below
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.84% or below
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.83% or below
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.83% or below
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.82% or below
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.82% or below
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.81% or below
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.81% or below
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
4.8% or below
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.8% or below
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.79% or below
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.79% or below
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.78% or below
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.78% or below
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.77% or below
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.77% or below
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
4.75% or below
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or below
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
4.76% or below
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.76% or below
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.9% or below
  • 4.89% or below
  • 4.88% or below

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?". 4.9% or below leads at 73.5%. Next is 4.89% or below at 70%. $2K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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