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ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
4.5% or below 99.5%
Next is 4.46% or below at 99.5%. The venues differ most on 4.37 (Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 41%), a 9.5-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.5% or below99.5%Not listed99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.5% or below99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
4.5% or below
99.5%
Not listed
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.5% or below
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.5% or below
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.46% or below99.5%Not listed99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.46% or below99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
4.46% or below
99.5%
Not listed
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.46% or below
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.46% or below
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.47% or below99.5%Not listed99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.47% or below99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
4.47% or below
99.5%
Not listed
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.47% or below
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.47% or below
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.48% or below99.5%Not listed99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.48% or below99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
4.48% or below
99.5%
Not listed
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.48% or below
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.48% or below
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.49% or below99.5%Not listed99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.49% or below99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
4.49% or below
99.5%
Not listed
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.49% or below
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.49% or below
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.51% or below99.5%Not listed99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.51% or below99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
4.51% or below
99.5%
Not listed
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.51% or below
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.51% or below
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.52% or below99.5%Not listed99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.52% or below99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
4.52% or below
99.5%
Not listed
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.52% or below
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.52% or below
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.53% or below99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.53% or below99%Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
4.53% or below
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.53% or below
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.53% or below
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $326
4.54% or below99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.54% or below99%Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
4.54% or below
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.54% or below
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.54% or below
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.55% or below99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.55% or below99%Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
4.55% or below
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.55% or below
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.55% or below
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Show 17 more outcomesHide 17 outcomes
4.56% or below99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.56% or below99%Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
4.56% or below
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.56% or below
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.56% or below
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.57% or below99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 7 min agoNo ask4.57% or below99%Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
4.57% or below
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 7 min ago
No ask
4.57% or below
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 7 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.57% or below
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
4.45% or below77%Not listed77%71¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 7 min ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)4.45% or below77%Kalshi 77%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
4.45% or below
77%
Not listed
77%
71¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
4.45% or below
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.45% or below
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
4.43Polymarket: “Below 4.44%”, Kalshi: “4.43% or below”75.8%75%62¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 20s ago78%64¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 7 min ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)4.4375.8%Polymarket 75%polled, 20s agoKalshi 78%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.43
Polymarket: “Below 4.44%”, Kalshi: “4.43% or below”
75.8%
75%
62¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
78%
64¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
4.43
75.8%
Polymarket 75%polled, 20s agoKalshi 78%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.44%
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $236
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.43% or below
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $50
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 80¢.
4.44% or below74%Not listed74%67¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, 7 min ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)4.44% or below74%Kalshi 74%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.44% or below
74%
Not listed
74%
67¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.44% or below
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.44% or below
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 67¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
4.42% or below69%Not listed69%60¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 7 min ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)4.42% or below69%Kalshi 69%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.42% or below
69%
Not listed
69%
60¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.42% or below
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.42% or below
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
4.41% or below66.5%Not listed66.5%57¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 7 min ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)4.41% or below66.5%Kalshi 66.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.41% or below
66.5%
Not listed
66.5%
57¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.41% or below
66.5%
Kalshi 66.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.41% or below
- Last price
- 66.5%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
4.4Polymarket: “Below 4.41%”, Kalshi: “4.4% or below”64.8%65.5%52¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 20s ago64%53¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 7 min ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)4.464.8%Polymarket 65.5%polled, 20s agoKalshi 64%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.4
Polymarket: “Below 4.41%”, Kalshi: “4.4% or below”
64.8%
65.5%
52¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
64%
53¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.4
64.8%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 20s agoKalshi 64%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.41%
- Last price
- 65.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $140
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.4% or below
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 52¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 75¢.
4.39% or below61%Not listed61%50¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 7 min ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)4.39% or below61%Kalshi 61%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.39% or below
61%
Not listed
61%
50¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
4.39% or below
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.39% or below
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
4.38% or below58%Not listed58%46¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 7 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)4.38% or below58%Kalshi 58%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
4.38% or below
58%
Not listed
58%
46¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
4.38% or below
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.38% or below
- Last price
- 58%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Below 4.35%50.5%50.5%45¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Below 4.35%50.5%Polymarket 50.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Below 4.35%
50.5%
50.5%
45¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Below 4.35%
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.35%
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $150
4.37Polymarket: “Below 4.38%”, Kalshi: “4.37% or below”44.2%50.5%44¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 20s ago41%41¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 7 min ago57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)4.3744.2%Polymarket 50.5%polled, 20s agoKalshi 41%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.37
Polymarket: “Below 4.38%”, Kalshi: “4.37% or below”
44.2%
50.5%
44¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
41%
41¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.37
44.2%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 20s agoKalshi 41%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.38%
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $222
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.37% or below
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $431
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 41¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.
Below 4.32%40.5%40.5%26¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Below 4.32%40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Below 4.32%
40.5%
40.5%
26¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Below 4.32%
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.32%
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $161
Below 4.29%31%31%13¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Below 4.29%31%Polymarket 31%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Below 4.29%
31%
31%
13¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Below 4.29%
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.29%
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $121
Below 4.26%30%30%3¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Below 4.26%30%Polymarket 30%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Below 4.26%
30%
30%
3¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Below 4.26%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.26%
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $230
Below 4.22%27%27%7¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed47¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Below 4.22%27%Polymarket 27%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Below 4.22%
27%
27%
7¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
47¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Below 4.22%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.22%
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $220
Below 4.18%8%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Below 4.18%8%Polymarket 8%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Below 4.18%
8%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Below 4.18%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Below 4.18%
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $272
No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads
Mostly the same bet: 4 differences
Where they differ
- Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
- Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
- Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
- Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 30, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
- Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
- Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
- Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 30, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.5% or below
- 4.46% or below
- 4.47% or below
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list 4.5% or below for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?". 4.5% or below leads at 99.5%. Next is 4.46% or below at 99.5%. $3K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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