The Prediction Markets

How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Closes
Oct 30, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$60K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
51 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

4.64% or below 83%

Next is 4.62% or below at 71%. The venues differ most on 4.59 (Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 52.5%), a 33-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 51 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
4.64% or below
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.64% or below
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$820
Trade this on Kalshi
4.62% or below
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.62% or below
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$883
Trade this on Kalshi
4.63
66.3%
Polymarket 63%polled, 51 min agoKalshi 73%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.64%
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4.63% or below
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 51 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 91¢.

4.61% or below
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.61% or below
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% or below
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% or below
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.58% or below
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.58% or below
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.57% or below
45.5%
Kalshi 45.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.57% or below
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.56% or below
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.56% or below
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.55% or below
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.55% or below
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.59
36%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 51 min agoKalshi 52.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.60%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4.59% or below
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 51 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 29¢ and selling on Kalshi at 40¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Show 6 more outcomes
4.53% or below
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.53% or below
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.52% or below
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.52% or below
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.54
28.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 51 min agoKalshi 36.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.55%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4.54% or below
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 51 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.

Below 4.50%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.50%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.40%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.40%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 4.45%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 51 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Below 4.45%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 51 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$789
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 51 min old: 4.59 asks 29¢ on Polymarket and bids 40¢ on Kalshi (1100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'above X%' rungs are strict; Polymarket rungs are inclusive ('reaches or is higher than'). Only rungs equal on the published 0.01 grid are linked.
  • Windows differ: Kalshi Treasury ladders count from listing (e.g. Sep 17, 2026); Polymarket's yearly ladders from Nov 11, 2025. Mortgage: Kalshi any PMMS release in the year; Polymarket weeks ending after market creation.
  • Both use Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (yields) and Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage).
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.64% or below
  • 4.62% or below
  • 4.63

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 4.64% or below for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". 4.64% or below leads at 83%. Next is 4.62% or below at 71%. $60K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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