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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
5.26% or below 68%
Next is 5.27% or below at 67%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
5.26% or below68%68%62¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 4 h ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)5.26% or below68%Kalshi 68%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
5.26% or below
68%
68%
62¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
5.26% or below
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.26% or below
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $200
5.27% or below67%67%62¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 4 h ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)5.27% or below67%Kalshi 67%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
5.27% or below
67%
67%
62¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
5.27% or below
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.27% or below
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
5.25% or below64%64%58¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 4 h ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)5.25% or below64%Kalshi 64%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
5.25% or below
64%
64%
58¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
5.25% or below
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or below
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $200
5.24% or below61%61%54¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 4 h ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)5.24% or below61%Kalshi 61%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
5.24% or below
61%
61%
54¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
5.24% or below
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.24% or below
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $200
5.23% or below58%58%50¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 4 h ago60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)5.23% or below58%Kalshi 58%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
5.23% or below
58%
58%
50¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
5.23% or below
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.23% or below
- Last price
- 58%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $100
5.22% or below55%55%49¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 4 h ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)5.22% or below55%Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
5.22% or below
55%
55%
49¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
5.22% or below
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.22% or below
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $100
5.21% or below52%52%46¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 4 h ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)5.21% or below52%Kalshi 52%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
5.21% or below
52%
52%
46¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
5.21% or below
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.21% or below
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $100
5.2% or below49%49%43¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 4 h ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)5.2% or below49%Kalshi 49%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
5.2% or below
49%
49%
43¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
5.2% or below
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.2% or below
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $100
5.19% or below43%43%39¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 4 h ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)5.19% or below43%Kalshi 43%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
5.19% or below
43%
43%
39¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
5.19% or below
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.19% or below
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
5.18% or below39%39%34¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 4 h ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)5.18% or below39%Kalshi 39%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.18% or below
39%
39%
34¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
5.18% or below
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.18% or below
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
5.17% or below37%37%32¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 4 h ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)5.17% or below37%Kalshi 37%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
5.17% or below
37%
37%
32¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
5.17% or below
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.17% or below
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
5.16% or below33%33%28¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 4 h ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)5.16% or below33%Kalshi 33%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
5.16% or below
33%
33%
28¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
5.16% or below
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.16% or below
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
5.15% or below31%31%26¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 4 h ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)5.15% or below31%Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.15% or below
31%
31%
26¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
5.15% or below
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or below
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
5.14% or below29%29%24¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 4 h ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)5.14% or below29%Kalshi 29%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5.14% or below
29%
29%
24¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5.14% or below
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.14% or below
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
5.13% or below27%27%22¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 4 h ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)5.13% or below27%Kalshi 27%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
5.13% or below
27%
27%
22¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
5.13% or below
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.13% or below
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
5.12% or below24%24%19¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 4 h ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)5.12% or below24%Kalshi 24%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.12% or below
24%
24%
19¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.12% or below
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.12% or below
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
5.11% or below22%22%17¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 4 h ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)5.11% or below22%Kalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
5.11% or below
22%
22%
17¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
5.11% or below
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.11% or below
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
5.07% or below21%21%11¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 4 h ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)5.07% or below21%Kalshi 21%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.07% or below
21%
21%
11¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.07% or below
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.07% or below
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $220
5.1% or below20%20%15¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 4 h ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)5.1% or below20%Kalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
5.1% or below
20%
20%
15¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
5.1% or below
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or below
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
5.09% or below19%19%14¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 4 h ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)5.09% or below19%Kalshi 19%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
5.09% or below
19%
19%
14¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
5.09% or below
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.09% or below
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
5.08% or below17%17%12¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 4 h ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)5.08% or below17%Kalshi 17%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.08% or below
17%
17%
12¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.08% or below
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.08% or below
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 5.26% or below
- 5.27% or below
- 5.25% or below
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?". 5.26% or below leads at 68%. Next is 5.27% or below at 67%. $1K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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