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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
4.69% or below 74%
Next is 4.68% or below at 71%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.69% or below74%74%62¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 4 h ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)4.69% or below74%Kalshi 74%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.69% or below
74%
74%
62¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
4.69% or below
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.69% or below
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
4.68% or below71%71%59¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 4 h ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)4.68% or below71%Kalshi 71%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
4.68% or below
71%
71%
59¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
4.68% or below
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.68% or below
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
4.67% or below68.5%68.5%56¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, 4 h ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)4.67% or below68.5%Kalshi 68.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.67% or below
68.5%
68.5%
56¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.67% or below
68.5%
Kalshi 68.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.67% or below
- Last price
- 68.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
4.66% or below65%65%52¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 4 h ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)4.66% or below65%Kalshi 65%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.66% or below
65%
65%
52¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.66% or below
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.66% or below
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
4.65% or below62.5%62.5%49¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 4 h ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)4.65% or below62.5%Kalshi 62.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.65% or below
62.5%
62.5%
49¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.65% or below
62.5%
Kalshi 62.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.65% or below
- Last price
- 62.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
4.64% or below59.5%59.5%46¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 4 h ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)4.64% or below59.5%Kalshi 59.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
4.64% or below
59.5%
59.5%
46¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
4.64% or below
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.64% or below
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
4.62% or below55%55%41¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 4 h ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)4.62% or below55%Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
4.62% or below
55%
55%
41¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
4.62% or below
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.62% or below
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
4.63% or below55%55%41¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 4 h ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)4.63% or below55%Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
4.63% or below
55%
55%
41¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
4.63% or below
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.63% or below
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
4.61% or below52.5%52.5%38¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 4 h ago67¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $149 (1.49x)4.61% or below52.5%Kalshi 52.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.61% or below
52.5%
52.5%
38¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
67¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.61% or below
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.61% or below
- Last price
- 52.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
4.6% or below50.5%50.5%36¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 4 h ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)4.6% or below50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.6% or below
50.5%
50.5%
36¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.6% or below
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.6% or below
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
4.59% or below50.5%50.5%36¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 4 h ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)4.59% or below50.5%Kalshi 50.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.59% or below
50.5%
50.5%
36¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
4.59% or below
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.59% or below
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
4.58% or below44%44%29¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 4 h ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)4.58% or below44%Kalshi 44%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.58% or below
44%
44%
29¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
4.58% or below
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.58% or below
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
4.56% or below42%42%27¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 4 h ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)4.56% or below42%Kalshi 42%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.56% or below
42%
42%
27¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.56% or below
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.56% or below
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
4.57% or below42%42%27¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 4 h ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)4.57% or below42%Kalshi 42%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.57% or below
42%
42%
27¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.57% or below
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.57% or below
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
4.54% or below40%40%25¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 4 h ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)4.54% or below40%Kalshi 40%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
4.54% or below
40%
40%
25¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
4.54% or below
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.54% or below
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
4.53% or below36.5%36.5%21¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 4 h ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)4.53% or below36.5%Kalshi 36.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.53% or below
36.5%
36.5%
21¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.53% or below
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.53% or below
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
4.52% or below33.5%33.5%19¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 4 h ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)4.52% or below33.5%Kalshi 33.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
4.52% or below
33.5%
33.5%
19¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
4.52% or below
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.52% or below
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
4.5% or below31%31%16¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 4 h ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)4.5% or below31%Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4.5% or below
31%
31%
16¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4.5% or below
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.5% or below
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
4.49% or below31%31%16¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 4 h ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)4.49% or below31%Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4.49% or below
31%
31%
16¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4.49% or below
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.49% or below
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
4.51% or below31%31%15¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 4 h ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)4.51% or below31%Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
4.51% or below
31%
31%
15¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
4.51% or below
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.51% or below
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
4.55% or below30%30%25¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 4 h ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)4.55% or below30%Kalshi 30%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
4.55% or below
30%
30%
25¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
4.55% or below
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.55% or below
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $421
4.48% or below20%20%11¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 4 h ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)4.48% or below20%Kalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
4.48% or below
20%
20%
11¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
4.48% or below
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.48% or below
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $228
4.47% or below18%18%10¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 4 h ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)4.47% or below18%Kalshi 18%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
4.47% or below
18%
18%
10¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
4.47% or below
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.47% or below
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $467
4.46% or below16%16%7¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 4 h ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)4.46% or below16%Kalshi 16%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
4.46% or below
16%
16%
7¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
4.46% or below
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.46% or below
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $464
4.45% or below15%15%8¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 4 h ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)4.45% or below15%Kalshi 15%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
4.45% or below
15%
15%
8¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
4.45% or below
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.45% or below
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $478
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.69% or below
- 4.68% or below
- 4.67% or below
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?". 4.69% or below leads at 74%. Next is 4.68% or below at 71%. $2K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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