The Prediction Markets

How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?

Closes
Jan 27, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Below 36% 98%

Next is Below 35% at 91%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Below 36%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 36%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 35%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 35%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 34%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 34%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 33%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 33%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 32%
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 32%
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 31%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 31%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 30%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 30%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: VoteHub

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Below 36%
  • Below 35%
  • Below 34%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?". Below 36% leads at 98%. Next is Below 35% at 91%. $1K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 27, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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