The Prediction Markets

How many bills will Trump veto before 2028?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

At least 2 89.5%

Next is At least 4 at 81.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 2
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4
81.5%
Kalshi 81.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 6
72.5%
Kalshi 72.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 6
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 8
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 8
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 10
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 10
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 12
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 12
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 15
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 15
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 20
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 25
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 25
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress, White House, The New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 2
  • At least 4
  • At least 6

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many bills will Trump veto before 2028?". At least 2 leads at 89.5%. Next is At least 4 at 81.5%. $2K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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