The Prediction Markets

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Closed
Aug 31, 2026
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
24–27
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
24–27
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
20–23
33.2%
Polymarket 33.2%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 55.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $180 (1.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
20–23
Last price
33.2%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
55.7¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$180 (1.80x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
32–35
32.6%
Polymarket 32.6%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 62.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $160 (1.60x)
Polymarket
Contract
32–35
Last price
32.6%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
62.4¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$160 (1.60x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
40+
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 52.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $191 (1.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
40+
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
52.4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$191 (1.91x)
Volume
$938
Trade this on Polymarket
28–31
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
28–31
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
36–39
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 18.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $538 (5.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
36–39
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
18.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$538 (5.38x)
Volume
$821
Trade this on Polymarket
20
9.1%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 15.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $649 (6.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
15.4¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$649 (6.49x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 24–27
  • 20–23
  • 32–35

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?". 24–27 last traded at 34.5%. Next is 20–23 at 33.2%. $34K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 31, 2026.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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