The Prediction Markets

How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting?

Closes
Dec 9, 2026, in 34 days
Traded
$52K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

0 67.9%

Next is 2 at 11.7%. The venues differ most on 0 (Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 70%), a 3.5-point gap.

0 67.9%2 11.7%1 11.2%3 5.7%4+ 2.6%5 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
0
67.9%
Polymarket 73.5%(68.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 70%(65.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
73.5%
Fair, margin removed
68.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
0
Last price
70%
Fair, margin removed
65.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

2
11.7%
Polymarket 12.1%(11.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 14%(13.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 13.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $763 (7.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
12.1%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
2
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

1
11.2%
Polymarket 11.7%(10.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 13%(12.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 13.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $758 (7.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
11.7%
Fair, margin removed
10.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
1
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

3
5.7%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 8%(7.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
3
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

4+
2.6%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4+
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

5
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 6 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi has a separate outcome for exactly 4 and exactly 5 dissenting votes, while Polymarket has a single '4+' bucket. The Kalshi 4 and 5 outcomes do not pair one-to-one with the Polymarket 4+ outcome.
  • Polymarket restricts dissents to those on the Fed Funds Rate decision. Kalshi says only 'dissenting votes' at the meeting, which could include dissents on other matters, though these are rare.
  • Kalshi does not name a resolution source. Polymarket uses the FOMC statement and also allows a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Polymarket may resolve early on the FOMC statement or credible reporting. Kalshi gives no early-resolution rule.
  • Kalshi rules are minimal and do not say what happens if the meeting is rescheduled or the vote count is ambiguous.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 9, 2026, 3:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Federal Reserve
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi has a separate outcome for exactly 4 and exactly 5 dissenting votes, while Polymarket has a single '4+' bucket. The Kalshi 4 and 5 outcomes do not pair one-to-one with the Polymarket 4+ outcome.
  • Polymarket restricts dissents to those on the Fed Funds Rate decision. Kalshi says only 'dissenting votes' at the meeting, which could include dissents on other matters, though these are rare.
  • Kalshi does not name a resolution source. Polymarket uses the FOMC statement and also allows a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Polymarket may resolve early on the FOMC statement or credible reporting. Kalshi gives no early-resolution rule.
  • Kalshi rules are minimal and do not say what happens if the meeting is rescheduled or the vote count is ambiguous.
  • Trading closes Dec 9, 2026, 3:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0
  • 2
  • 1

Live prices for 0

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting?". 0 leads at 67.9%. Next is 2 at 11.7%. $52K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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