The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?

Closes
Feb 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

At least 205 98%

Next is At least 210 at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 205
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 205
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 210
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 210
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 215
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 215
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 218
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 218
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 185
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 185
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 190
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 190
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 195
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 195
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 200
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 200
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 220
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 220
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 225
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 225
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
At least 230
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 230
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 235
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 235
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 240
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 240
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 245
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 245
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 250
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 250
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 255
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 255
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 260
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 260
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 265
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 265
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 205
  • At least 210
  • At least 215

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?". At least 205 leads at 98%. Next is At least 210 at 98%. $5K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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