The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the 2028 election?

Closes
Feb 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

At least 175 96%

Next is At least 180 at 92%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 175
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 175
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 180
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 180
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 185
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 185
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 190
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 190
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 195
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 195
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 200
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 200
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$510
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 205
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 205
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 210
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 210
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 215
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 215
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 218
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 218
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
At least 220
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 220
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 225
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 225
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 230
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 230
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 235
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 235
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 240
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 240
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 245
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 245
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 250
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 250
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 255
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 255
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 175
  • At least 180
  • At least 185

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Republicans hold after the 2028 election?". At least 175 leads at 96%. Next is At least 180 at 92%. $3K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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