The Prediction Markets

How many Independents will be elected to Congress?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

0 58%

Next is At least 1 at 38%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
0
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 1
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Kalshi
1
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 2
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
2
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 3
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
4+
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
4+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 4
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
3
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: state governments

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0
  • At least 1
  • 1

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 0 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Independents will be elected to Congress?". 0 leads at 58%. Next is At least 1 at 38%. $13K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market. In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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