The Prediction Markets

How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?

Closes
Mar 1, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

No vote by February 28 39.5%

Next is 57–59 at 26%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
No vote by February 28
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
No vote by February 28
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket
57–59
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
57–59
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
54–56
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
54–56
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Polymarket
60–62
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
60–62
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Polymarket
69–71
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
69–71
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket
66–68
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
66–68
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
51–53
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
51–53
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket
72+
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
72+
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
48–50
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
48–50
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Polymarket
63–65
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
63–65
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Polymarket
47 or fewer
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
47 or fewer
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No vote by February 28
  • 57–59
  • 54–56

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?". No vote by February 28 leads at 39.5%. Next is 57–59 at 26%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

Following the Israeli legislative election of October 27, 2026, the 26th Knesset is set to hold a vote of confidence in a new government. This market will resolve to the number of Members of the Knesset who vote “For” in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following this election. The vote count refers to the first final vote of confidence in the full Knesset, not committee votes or procedural motions. If no such vote is held by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. The resolution sources will be official information from the Knesset and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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