The Prediction Markets

How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

Starts in 11 daysKickoff
Traded
$708K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

22–23 32.3%

Next is 22 at 28.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

22–23 32.3%22 28.3%24–25 24.4%26–27 10.9%28–29 2.3%2 others 1.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
22–23
32.3%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
22–23
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
22
28.3%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
22
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
24–25
24.4%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
24–25
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
26–27
10.9%
Polymarket 11%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
26–27
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
28–29
2.3%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
28–29
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$559K
Trade this on Polymarket
32+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
32+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
30–31
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
30–31
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 22–23
  • 22
  • 24–25

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?". 22–23 leads at 32.3%. Next is 22 at 28.3%. $708K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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