The Prediction Markets

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 20, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
325–339
30.2%
Polymarket 31.5%(30.2% fair)polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
325–339
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
30.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
340–354
26.3%
Polymarket 27.5%(26.3% fair)polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
340–354
Last price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
26.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
310–324
14.4%
Polymarket 15.1%(14.4% fair)polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 16.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $595 (5.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
310–324
Last price
15.1%
Fair, margin removed
14.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
16.8¢
Sell Yes
13.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$595 (5.95x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
355+
12%
Polymarket 12.5%(12% fair)polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
355+
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
12%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
280–294
6.3%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
280–294
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
295–309
6.3%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
295–309
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
280
4.5%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
280
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 325–339
  • 340–354
  • 310–324

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?". 325–339 last traded at 30.2%. Next is 340–354 at 26.3%. $35K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 20, 2026.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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