The Prediction Markets

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?

Closes
Feb 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

At least 48 96%

Next is At least 46 at 84.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 48
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 46
84.5%
Kalshi 84.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 47
83.5%
Kalshi 83.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 47
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 44
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 44
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 42
79.5%
Kalshi 79.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
59¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 53
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 53
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 49
77.5%
Kalshi 77.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 49
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 51
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 51
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$363
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
At least 56
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 55
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 55
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 58
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 60
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 48
  • At least 46
  • At least 47

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?". At least 48 leads at 96%. Next is At least 46 at 84.5%. $28K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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