The Prediction Markets

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the 2028 election?

Closes
Feb 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

At least 47 86%

Next is At least 46 at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 47
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 47
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 46
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 42
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 44
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 44
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 49
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 49
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 51
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 51
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 53
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 53
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 55
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 55
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 56
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
At least 58
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 60
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 48
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$809
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 47
  • At least 46
  • At least 42

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the 2028 election?". At least 47 leads at 86%. Next is At least 46 at 85%. $5K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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