The Prediction Markets

How many Taiwanese mayor/magistrate races will KMT win?

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 23 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

13 26%

Next is 9 at 25.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
13
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
13
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
9
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
9
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
14
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
14
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Polymarket
15
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
15
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
12
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
12
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
10
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
11
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
11
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
8
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Polymarket
7
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
7
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 13
  • 9
  • 14

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Taiwanese mayor/magistrate races will KMT win?". 13 leads at 26%. Next is 9 at 25.5%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of Mayor and Magistrate elections for Taiwan’s special municipalities, counties, and cities won by the Kuomintang (KMT) during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County If the results of the 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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