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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
At least 2 96.5%
Next is At least 3 at 96%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 17 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
At least 296.5%Not listed96.5%94¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)At least 296.5%Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 2
96.5%
Not listed
96.5%
94¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 2
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 2
- Last price
- 96.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
At least 396%Not listed96%93¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)At least 396%Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 3
96%
Not listed
96%
93¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
At least 3
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 3
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
At least 494.5%Not listed94.5%91¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 1 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)At least 494.5%Kalshi 94.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
At least 4
94.5%
Not listed
94.5%
91¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
At least 4
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 4
- Last price
- 94.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
At least 593%Not listed93%85¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)At least 593%Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
At least 5
93%
Not listed
93%
85¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
At least 5
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 5
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $11
At least 686%Not listed86%79¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 1 min ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)At least 686%Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
At least 6
86%
Not listed
86%
79¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
At least 6
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 6
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $210
At least 781%Not listed81%81¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 1 min ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)At least 781%Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
At least 7
81%
Not listed
81%
81¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
At least 7
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 7
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $478
At least 865%Not listed65%64¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)At least 865%Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
At least 8
65%
Not listed
65%
64¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
At least 8
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 8
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $344
At least 954%Not listed54%51¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 1 min ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)At least 954%Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
At least 9
54%
Not listed
54%
51¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
At least 9
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 9
- Last price
- 54%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
At least 1039%Not listed39%36¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 1 min ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)At least 1039%Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
At least 10
39%
Not listed
39%
36¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
At least 10
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 10
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
331%31%23¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 17 min agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)331%Polymarket 31%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
3
31%
31%
23¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 17 min ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
3
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 17 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $266
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
530.6%30.6%3¢ bid, 58.1¢ askpolled, 17 min agoNot listed58.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)530.6%Polymarket 30.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 58.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
5
30.6%
30.6%
3¢ bid, 58.1¢ ask
polled, 17 min ago
Not listed
58.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
5
30.6%
Polymarket 30.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 58.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5
- Last price
- 30.6%
- As of
- Polled 17 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $368
At least 1127.5%Not listed27.5%23¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 1 min ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)At least 1127.5%Kalshi 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
At least 11
27.5%
Not listed
27.5%
23¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
At least 11
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 11
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
422.7%22.7%5.4¢ bid, 39.9¢ askpolled, 17 min agoNot listed39.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $251 (2.51x)422.7%Polymarket 22.7%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 39.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $251 (2.51x)
4
22.7%
22.7%
5.4¢ bid, 39.9¢ ask
polled, 17 min ago
Not listed
39.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $251 (2.51x)
4
22.7%
Polymarket 22.7%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 39.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $251 (2.51x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4
- Last price
- 22.7%
- As of
- Polled 17 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $251 (2.51x)
- Volume
- $351
At least 1219.5%Not listed19.5%15¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)At least 1219.5%Kalshi 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
At least 12
19.5%
Not listed
19.5%
15¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
At least 12
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 12
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
619.2%19.2%3.5¢ bid, 34.9¢ askpolled, 17 min agoNot listed34.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $287 (2.87x)619.2%Polymarket 19.2%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 34.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
6
19.2%
19.2%
3.5¢ bid, 34.9¢ ask
polled, 17 min ago
Not listed
34.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $287 (2.87x)
6
19.2%
Polymarket 19.2%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 34.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6
- Last price
- 19.2%
- As of
- Polled 17 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $287 (2.87x)
- Volume
- $497
At least 1313.5%Not listed13.5%9¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 1 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)At least 1313.5%Kalshi 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
At least 13
13.5%
Not listed
13.5%
9¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
At least 13
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- At least 13
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
7+11.5%11.5%9¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 17 min agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)7+11.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
7+
11.5%
11.5%
9¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 17 min ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
7+
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 7+
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 17 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $2K
12.6%2.6%1.2¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 17 min agoNot listed3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)12.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
1
2.6%
2.6%
1.2¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 17 min ago
Not listed
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
1
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled 17 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $671
22.2%2.2%1.5¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 17 min agoNot listed2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)22.2%Polymarket 2.2%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2
2.2%
2.2%
1.5¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 17 min ago
Not listed
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 17 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $453
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, Bloomberg, The New York Times
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- At least 2
- At least 3
- At least 4
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list At least 2 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?". At least 2 leads at 96.5%. Next is At least 3 at 96%. $24K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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