The Prediction Markets

How many Trump vetoes overridden by December 31, 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

0 38.5%

Next is 1 at 29.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

0 38.5%1 29.6%3+ 20.2%2 11.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
0
38.5%
Polymarket 41%(38.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1
29.6%
Polymarket 31.5%(29.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Polymarket
3+
20.2%
Polymarket 21.5%(20.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
3+
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
2
11.7%
Polymarket 12.5%(11.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0
  • 1
  • 3+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Trump vetoes overridden by December 31, 2027?". 0 leads at 38.5%. Next is 1 at 29.6%. $2K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the exact number of Donald Trump's vetoes that Congress overrides between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A veto will be considered overridden once both the House of Representatives and the Senate pass the vetoed bill or joint resolution by the two-thirds vote required under Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution. An override will be considered to have occurred on the date the second chamber completes its vote, regardless of when the veto was issued. An override vote by only one chamber will not qualify. Each overridden bill or joint resolution counts as one override. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official congressional voting records, including Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets
How many Trump vetoes overridden by December 31, 2027? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets