The Prediction Markets

How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 53 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

No vote 20%

Next is 220-224 at 18.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

No vote 20%220-224 18.7%215-219 15.4%230-234 15%225-229 12.1%3 others 18.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
No vote
20%
Polymarket 24%(20% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
No vote
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
220-224
18.7%
Polymarket 22.5%(18.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
220-224
Last price
22.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Polymarket
215-219
15.4%
Polymarket 18.5%(15.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
215-219
Last price
18.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Polymarket
230-234
15%
Polymarket 18%(15% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
230-234
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Polymarket
225-229
12.1%
Polymarket 14.5%(12.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
225-229
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Polymarket
235-239
8.8%
Polymarket 10.5%(8.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
235-239
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
215
5.8%
Polymarket 7%(5.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
215
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Polymarket
240+
4.2%
Polymarket 5.1%(4.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
240+
Last price
5.1%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No vote
  • 220-224
  • 215-219

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?". No vote leads at 20%. Next is 220-224 at 18.7%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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