The Prediction Markets

How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?

Closes
Jan 4, 2027, in 59 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

250-254 32%

Next is 245-249 at 31%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
250-254
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
250-254
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
245-249
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
245-249
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Polymarket
255-259
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
255-259
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
260-264
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
260-264
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
244 or fewer
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
244 or fewer
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
270-274
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
270-274
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
275-279
19.6%
Polymarket 19.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 36.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $274 (2.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
275-279
Last price
19.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$274 (2.74x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
265-269
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
265-269
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Polymarket
280 or more
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
280 or more
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 250-254
  • 245-249
  • 255-259

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?". 250-254 leads at 32%. Next is 245-249 at 31%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2027.

The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House. A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. Only votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries by name on the first such ballot will count, regardless of whether he is elected on that ballot. If Hakeem Jeffries receives no votes on the first ballot, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If a person other than Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets