The Prediction Markets

How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 11 billion dollars 99%

Next is Above 11.25 billion dollars at 93.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 11 billion dollars
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11 billion dollars
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.25 billion dollars
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.25 billion dollars
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.5 billion dollars
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5 billion dollars
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.75 billion dollars
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.75 billion dollars
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12 billion dollars
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12 billion dollars
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.25 billion dollars
37.5%
Kalshi 37.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.25 billion dollars
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.5 billion dollars
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.5 billion dollars
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AdImpact

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 11 billion dollars
  • Above 11.25 billion dollars
  • Above 11.5 billion dollars

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?". Above 11 billion dollars leads at 99%. Next is Above 11.25 billion dollars at 93.5%. $15K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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