The Prediction Markets

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 26 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
10 min ago
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What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2029 97%

Next is Before Jul 1, 2028 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 10 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2029
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2029
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2028
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2028
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$773
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of Commerce, The White House, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2029
  • Before Jul 1, 2028
  • Before Jan 1, 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?". Before Jan 1, 2029 leads at 97%. Next is Before Jul 1, 2028 at 96%. $31K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets