The Prediction Markets

Hsinchu City mayoral election winner?

Closes
Nov 28, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Ann Kao 86.4%

Next is Chuang Ching-cheng at 13.2%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on every outcome.

Ann Kao 86.4%Chuang Ching-cheng 13.2%Ho Chih-yung 0.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ann Kao
86.4%
Polymarket 87.5%(86.8% fair)polled, 1 h agoKalshi 87%(85.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ann Kao
Last price
87.5%
Fair, margin removed
86.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ann Kao
Last price
87%
Fair, margin removed
85.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$943
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 87¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 88¢.

Chuang Ching-cheng
13.2%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chuang Ching-cheng
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
12.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chuang Ching-cheng
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Ho Chih-yung
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ho Chih-yung
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ho Chih-yung
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Ho Chih-yung asks 0.2¢ on Polymarket and bids 1¢ on Kalshi (80 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the result is not known by June 30, 2027; Kalshi's text shows no such fallback (full rules not provided).
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket uses consensus of credible reporting, with official CEC results deciding if ambiguous. Both reach the same result in ordinary cases.
  • Kalshi's rules excerpt is truncated ("See full rules") and lacks the explicit resolution source, certification, and tie details that Polymarket states.
  • Polymarket explicitly excludes temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election; Kalshi does not state this, but it does not affect the winner of the election.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: db.cec.gov.tw
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Taiwan
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the result is not known by June 30, 2027; Kalshi's text shows no such fallback (full rules not provided).
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket uses consensus of credible reporting, with official CEC results deciding if ambiguous. Both reach the same result in ordinary cases.
  • Kalshi's rules excerpt is truncated ("See full rules") and lacks the explicit resolution source, certification, and tie details that Polymarket states.
  • Polymarket explicitly excludes temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election; Kalshi does not state this, but it does not affect the winner of the election.
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ann Kao
  • Chuang Ching-cheng
  • Ho Chih-yung

Live prices for Ann Kao

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hsinchu City mayoral election winner?". Ann Kao leads at 86.4%. Next is Chuang Ching-cheng at 13.2%. $48K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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