The Prediction Markets

Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP wins___seats?

Closed
Apr 12, 2026
Traded
$290K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
60+
82.4%
Polymarket 82.4%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
60+
Last price
82.4%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
81.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
70+
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
70+
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
80+
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
80+
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$152K
Trade this on Polymarket
90+
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
90+
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket
100+
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
100+
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
110+
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
110+
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 60+
  • 70+
  • 80+

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP wins___seats?". 60+ last traded at 82.4%. Next is 70+ at 57.5%. $290K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Fidesz-KDNP wins at least the listed number of seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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