The Prediction Markets

Hungary Election: TISZA wins___seats?

Closed
Apr 12, 2026
Traded
$262K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
90+
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
90+
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
100+
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
100+
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
110+
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
110+
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
120+
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
120+
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Polymarket
130+
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 4713 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
130+
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$96K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 90+
  • 100+
  • 110+

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Hungary Election: TISZA wins___seats?". 90+ last traded at 83.5%. Next is 100+ at 74%. $262K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tisza wins at least the listed number of seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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