The Prediction Markets

Idaho Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 470K 95%

Next is Above 500K at 93%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 470K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 470K
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 500K
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500K
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 530K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 530K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 590K
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 590K
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 560K
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 560K
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 620K
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 620K
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 650K
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 650K
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
600K-640K
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K-640K
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 680K
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 680K
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 710K
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 710K
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
640K-680K
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
640K-680K
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
720K+
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $481 (4.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
720K+
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.8¢
Sell Yes
16.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$481 (4.81x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
680K-720K
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
680K-720K
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 740K
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 740K
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 770K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 770K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800K
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800K
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
520K-560K
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
520K-560K
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
560K-600K
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
560K-600K
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$874
Trade this on Polymarket
480K-520K
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
480K-520K
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$951
Trade this on Polymarket
480K
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
480K
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Idaho Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 470K
  • Above 500K
  • Above 530K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 470K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Idaho Senate Election: Turnout". Above 470K leads at 95%. Next is Above 500K at 93%. $18K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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