The Prediction Markets

Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner

Closed
Mar 17, 2026
Traded
$626K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 17, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 219 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Don Tracy
99.7%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5278 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Don Tracy
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$436K
Trade this on Polymarket
CaSándra Claiborne
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5278 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
CaSándra Claiborne
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jimmy Lee Tillman II
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5278 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jimmy Lee Tillman II
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
John Goodman
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5278 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lloyd Jones
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5278 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lloyd Jones
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pamela Denise Long
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5278 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pamela Denise Long
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Panagioti Bartzis
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5278 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Panagioti Bartzis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
R. Cary Capparelli
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5278 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
R. Cary Capparelli
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 219 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Don Tracy
  • CaSándra Claiborne
  • Jimmy Lee Tillman II

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner". Don Tracy last traded at 99.7%. Next is CaSándra Claiborne at 0.1%. $626K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 17, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois. If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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