The Prediction Markets

Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.30M 94.5%

Next is Above 3.70M at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.30M
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.30M
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.70M
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.70M
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50M
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50M
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.90M
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90M
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.10M
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10M
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.30M
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.30M
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.5M-4.75M
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5M-4.75M
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.25M-4.5M
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.25M-4.5M
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.50M
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50M
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.70M
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70M
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
4M-4.25M
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
4M-4.25M
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.90M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.90M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
3.25M
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.25M
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75M+
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.75M+
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.75M-4M
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.75M-4M
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$645
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5M-3.75M
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5M-3.75M
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$703
Trade this on Polymarket
3.25M-3.5M
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.25M-3.5M
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.30M
  • Above 3.70M
  • Above 3.50M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.30M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois Senate Election: Turnout". Above 3.30M leads at 94.5%. Next is Above 3.70M at 87%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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