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What the markets expect
Sand, 1+ pts 99.8%
Next is Sand, 3+ pts at 99.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Sand, 1+ pts99.8%Not listed99.8%99.8¢ bid, 99.9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100 (1.00x)Sand, 1+ pts99.8%Kalshi 99.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 1+ pts
99.8%
Not listed
99.8%
99.8¢ bid, 99.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 1+ pts
99.8%
Kalshi 99.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 99.8%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 99.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $5K
Sand, 3+ pts99.8%Not listed99.8%99.4¢ bid, 99.9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100 (1.00x)Sand, 3+ pts99.8%Kalshi 99.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 3+ pts
99.8%
Not listed
99.8%
99.4¢ bid, 99.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 3+ pts
99.8%
Kalshi 99.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 3+ pts
- Last price
- 99.8%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 99.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $33K
Sand, 2+ pts99.7%Not listed99.7%99.5¢ bid, 99.9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100 (1.00x)Sand, 2+ pts99.7%Kalshi 99.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 2+ pts
99.7%
Not listed
99.7%
99.5¢ bid, 99.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 2+ pts
99.7%
Kalshi 99.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 2+ pts
- Last price
- 99.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 99.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $4K
Sand, 4+ pts99.3%Not listed99.3%99.3¢ bid, 99.7¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100 (1.00x)Sand, 4+ pts99.3%Kalshi 99.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 4+ pts
99.3%
Not listed
99.3%
99.3¢ bid, 99.7¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 4+ pts
99.3%
Kalshi 99.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 4+ pts
- Last price
- 99.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 99.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $11K
Sand, 5+ pts99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, 99.8¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100 (1.00x)Sand, 5+ pts99%Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 5+ pts
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, 99.8¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 5+ pts
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 5+ pts
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $10K
Sand, 6+ pts99%Not listed99%99¢ bid, 99.8¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $100 (1.00x)Sand, 6+ pts99%Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 6+ pts
99%
Not listed
99%
99¢ bid, 99.8¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Sand, 6+ pts
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 6+ pts
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $42K
Sand, 8+ pts98.9%Not listed98.9%95.5¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Sand, 8+ pts98.9%Kalshi 98.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sand, 8+ pts
98.9%
Not listed
98.9%
95.5¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sand, 8+ pts
98.9%
Kalshi 98.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 8+ pts
- Last price
- 98.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $5K
Sand, 9+ pts98.6%Not listed98.6%97¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Sand, 9+ pts98.6%Kalshi 98.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sand, 9+ pts
98.6%
Not listed
98.6%
97¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sand, 9+ pts
98.6%
Kalshi 98.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 9+ pts
- Last price
- 98.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 97¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $56K
Sand, 10+ pts95.5%Not listed95.5%82¢ bid, 95.5¢ askpolled, 4 h ago95.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Sand, 10+ pts95.5%Kalshi 95.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 95.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Sand, 10+ pts
95.5%
Not listed
95.5%
82¢ bid, 95.5¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
95.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Sand, 10+ pts
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 95.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 10+ pts
- Last price
- 95.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 95.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $6K
Sand, 7+ pts95.3%Not listed95.3%95.3¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 4 h ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Sand, 7+ pts95.3%Kalshi 95.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sand, 7+ pts
95.3%
Not listed
95.3%
95.3¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Sand, 7+ pts
95.3%
Kalshi 95.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 7+ pts
- Last price
- 95.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $11K
Show 21 more outcomesHide 21 outcomes
Sand 9-12%57.5%57.5%27.5¢ bid, 87.5¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed87.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Sand 9-12%57.5%Polymarket 57.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 87.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Sand 9-12%
57.5%
57.5%
27.5¢ bid, 87.5¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
87.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Sand 9-12%
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 87.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sand 9-12%
- Last price
- 57.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 87.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 27.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $6K
Rob Sand, 10-12%46%Not listed46%7¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 4 h ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Rob Sand, 10-12%46%Kalshi 46%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Rob Sand, 10-12%
46%
Not listed
46%
7¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Rob Sand, 10-12%
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, 10-12%
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $285
Sand, 11+ pts44%Not listed44%36¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 4 h ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Sand, 11+ pts44%Kalshi 44%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Sand, 11+ pts
44%
Not listed
44%
36¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Sand, 11+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 11+ pts
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $11K
Sand 12%+22.9%22.9%11.4¢ bid, 34.3¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed34.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $292 (2.92x)Sand 12%+22.9%Polymarket 22.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $292 (2.92x)
Sand 12%+
22.9%
22.9%
11.4¢ bid, 34.3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
34.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $292 (2.92x)
Sand 12%+
22.9%
Polymarket 22.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $292 (2.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sand 12%+
- Last price
- 22.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 34.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $292 (2.92x)
- Volume
- $15K
Rob Sand, ≥14%14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 4 h ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Rob Sand, ≥14%14%Kalshi 14%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Rob Sand, ≥14%
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Rob Sand, ≥14%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, ≥14%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $10K
Rob Sand, 8-10%14%Not listed14%3¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 4 h ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Rob Sand, 8-10%14%Kalshi 14%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Rob Sand, 8-10%
14%
Not listed
14%
3¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Rob Sand, 8-10%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, 8-10%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $304
Sand, 12+ pts11%Not listed11%11¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 4 h ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Sand, 12+ pts11%Kalshi 11%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Sand, 12+ pts
11%
Not listed
11%
11¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Sand, 12+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 12+ pts
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $17K
Sand 6-9%6.2%6.2%0.1¢ bid, 12.3¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed12.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $813 (8.13x)Sand 6-9%6.2%Polymarket 6.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Sand 6-9%
6.2%
6.2%
0.1¢ bid, 12.3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
12.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Sand 6-9%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sand 6-9%
- Last price
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 12.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $813 (8.13x)
- Volume
- $11K
Sand 3-6%4.7%4.7%1¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed8.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)Sand 3-6%4.7%Polymarket 4.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Sand 3-6%
4.7%
4.7%
1¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
8.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Sand 3-6%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sand 3-6%
- Last price
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $10K
Lahn 3-6%3.5%3.5%0.1¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed6.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)Lahn 3-6%3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Lahn 3-6%
3.5%
3.5%
0.1¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
6.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Lahn 3-6%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lahn 3-6%
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $911
Rob Sand, 12-14%3%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 4 h ago42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Rob Sand, 12-14%3%Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Rob Sand, 12-14%
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Rob Sand, 12-14%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, 12-14%
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
- Volume
- $312
Lahn 0-3%2.6%2.6%0.3¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)Lahn 0-3%2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Lahn 0-3%
2.6%
2.6%
0.3¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Lahn 0-3%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lahn 0-3%
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $2K
Rob Sand, 0-2%2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Rob Sand, 0-2%2%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Rob Sand, 0-2%
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Rob Sand, 0-2%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, 0-2%
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $620
Rob Sand, 2-4%2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Rob Sand, 2-4%2%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Rob Sand, 2-4%
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Rob Sand, 2-4%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, 2-4%
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $814
Rob Sand, 4-6%2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 4 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Rob Sand, 4-6%2%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rob Sand, 4-6%
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rob Sand, 4-6%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, 4-6%
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $640
Rob Sand, 6-8%2%Not listed2%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 4 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Rob Sand, 6-8%2%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Rob Sand, 6-8%
2%
Not listed
2%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Rob Sand, 6-8%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rob Sand, 6-8%
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $392
Lahn 12%+1.4%1.4%0.2¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed2.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)Lahn 12%+1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Lahn 12%+
1.4%
1.4%
0.2¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
2.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Lahn 12%+
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lahn 12%+
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $587
Sand, 15+ pts1.1%Not listed1.1%1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Sand, 15+ pts1.1%Kalshi 1.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Sand, 15+ pts
1.1%
Not listed
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Sand, 15+ pts
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sand, 15+ pts
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $4K
Lahn 6-9%0.9%0.9%0.1¢ bid, 1.6¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed1.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)Lahn 6-9%0.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Lahn 6-9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.1¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
1.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Lahn 6-9%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lahn 6-9%
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,250 (62.5x)
- Volume
- $677
Sand 0-3%0.7%0.7%0.1¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed1.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)Sand 0-3%0.7%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Sand 0-3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
1.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Sand 0-3%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sand 0-3%
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $7K
Lahn 9-12%0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Lahn 9-12%0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Lahn 9-12%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Lahn 9-12%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lahn 9-12%
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $719
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Iowa Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Sand, 1+ pts
- Sand, 3+ pts
- Sand, 2+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Sand, 1+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Governor: margin of victory". Sand, 1+ pts leads at 99.8%. Next is Sand, 3+ pts at 99.8%. $283K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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