The Prediction Markets

Iowa Republican presidential caucus winner?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

J.D. Vance 33.3%

Next is Marco Rubio at 20.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

J.D. Vance 33.3%Marco Rubio 20.6%Ron DeSantis 11.8%Glenn Youngkin 4.9%Ted Cruz 4.9%10 others 24.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
J.D. Vance
33.3%
Kalshi 34%(33.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
34%
Fair, margin removed
33.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
20.6%
Kalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Kalshi
Ron DeSantis
11.8%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
Glenn Youngkin
4.9%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Ted Cruz
4.9%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi
Thomas Massie
4.9%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Tucker Carlson
4.9%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald J. Trump Jr.
3.4%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivanka Trump
3.4%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald J. Trump
2.9%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Brian Kemp
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Kent
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Kent
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikki Haley
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party of Iowa

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • J.D. Vance
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ron DeSantis

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Republican presidential caucus winner?". J.D. Vance leads at 33.3%. Next is Marco Rubio at 20.6%. $1K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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