The Prediction Markets

Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

4-4.75% 34.7%

Next is 4.75-5.5% at 29.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

4-4.75% 34.7%4.75-5.5% 29.3%3.25-4% 26.5%3.25% 5.8%5.5%+ 3.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4-4.75%
34.7%
Polymarket 38.5%(34.7% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
4-4.75%
Last price
38.5%
Fair, margin removed
34.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75-5.5%
29.3%
Polymarket 32.5%(29.3% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.75-5.5%
Last price
32.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.25-4%
26.5%
Polymarket 29.5%(26.6% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.25-4%
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
26.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.25%
5.8%
Polymarket 6.5%(5.8% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.25%
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$733
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5%+
3.7%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5%+
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bechirot.gov.il

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4-4.75%
  • 4.75-5.5%
  • 3.25-4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?". 4-4.75% leads at 34.7%. Next is 4.75-5.5% at 29.3%. $8K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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