The Prediction Markets

Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Yes 22.5%

Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Yes 22.5%No 77.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover Yes and No across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?". Yes leads at 22.5%. $4K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Likud and Yashar! are included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election, regardless of whether any other parties are also included in that government. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Yashar! refers to the political party led by Gadi Eisenkot. If Yashar! contests the election as part of a joint list or alliance, Yashar! will be considered included in the government if at least one member of Yashar! serves as a Minister. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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