The Prediction Markets

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

22-23 30.2%

Next is 20 at 21.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

22-23 30.2%20 21.8%20-21 18.5%26-27 9.7%28-29 9%2 others 10.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
22-23
30.2%
Polymarket 36%(30.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
22-23
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
30.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
20
21.8%
Polymarket 26%(21.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $314 (3.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
21.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.8¢
Sell Yes
20.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$314 (3.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
20-21
18.5%
Polymarket 22%(18.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-21
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
26-27
9.7%
Polymarket 11.5%(9.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
26-27
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
28-29
9%
Polymarket 10.8%(9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
28-29
Last price
10.8%
Fair, margin removed
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$971
Trade this on Polymarket
24-25
7.6%
Polymarket 9%(7.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
24-25
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
30+
3.2%
Polymarket 3.8%(3.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
30+
Last price
3.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: gov.il

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 22-23
  • 20
  • 20-21

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?". 22-23 leads at 30.2%. Next is 20 at 21.8%. $24K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Yashar in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Yashar in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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