The Prediction Markets

Israeli Legislative Election: % of Vote Below Threshold

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

4-6% 31.8%

Next is 4% at 30.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

4-6% 31.8%4% 30.4%6-8% 19.9%8%+ 17.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4-6%
31.8%
Polymarket 32%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
4-6%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$671
Trade this on Polymarket
4%
30.4%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
4%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
6-8%
19.9%
Polymarket 20%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
6-8%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Polymarket
8%+
17.9%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
8%+
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4-6%
  • 4%
  • 6-8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israeli Legislative Election: % of Vote Below Threshold". 4-6% leads at 31.8%. Next is 4% at 30.4%. $2K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined share of the vote received by lists that do not pass the electoral threshold in the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of valid votes cast for lists that are not allocated any seats due to falling below the electoral threshold divided by the total number of valid votes cast. (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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