The Prediction Markets

Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 4,800,000 99%

Next is At least 4,900,000 at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 4,800,000
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,800,000
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4,900,000
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,900,000
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,000,000
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,000,000
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,100,000
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,100,000
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,200,000
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,200,000
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,250,000
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,250,000
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$645
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,300,000
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,300,000
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Kalshi
74%+
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
74%+
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 5,400,000
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,400,000
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
70-72%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
70-72%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
68-70%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
68-70%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
72-74%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
72-74%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 5,500,000
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,500,000
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,600,000
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,600,000
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,700,000
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,700,000
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5,800,000
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5,800,000
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
66-68%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
66-68%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Polymarket
66%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
66%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Elections Committee for the Knesset

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 4,800,000
  • At least 4,900,000
  • At least 5,000,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 4,800,000 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout". At least 4,800,000 leads at 99%. Next is At least 4,900,000 at 99%. $23K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of votes cast (סה"כ קולות שהוזנו) divided by the total number of eligible voters (סה"כ בעלי זכות בחירה). (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets