The Prediction Markets

JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

June 30, 2027 46.5%

Next is JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican at 37%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
June 30, 2027
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
March 31, 2027
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Marco Rubio, JD Vance

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30, 2027
  • JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican
  • March 31, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list June 30, 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?". June 30, 2027 leads at 46.5%. Next is JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican at 37%. $16K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if J.D. Vance officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by J.D. Vance will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by J.D. Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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