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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Ends before Round 3? 88.5%
Next is Ends before Round 2? at 70%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Ends before Round 3?88.5%88.5%87¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Ends before Round 3?88.5%Polymarket 88.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Ends before Round 3?
88.5%
88.5%
87¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
90¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Ends before Round 3?
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 88.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
Ends before Round 2?70%70%68¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Ends before Round 2?70%Polymarket 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Ends before Round 2?
70%
70%
68¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Ends before Round 2?
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds57%57%53¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed61¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $164 (1.64x)O/U 0.5 Rounds57%Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
57%
57%
53¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
61¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $100
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 156%Not listed56%55¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 1 min ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Terrance McKinney to win in Round 156%Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 1
56%
Not listed
56%
55¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 1
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Terrance McKinney to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $461
Fight won by KO/TKO?49.5%49.5%44¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Fight won by KO/TKO?49.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
49.5%
49.5%
44¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $50
McKinney in Round 149.5%49.5%43¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)McKinney in Round 149.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
McKinney in Round 1
49.5%
49.5%
43¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
McKinney in Round 1
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- McKinney in Round 1
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $47
Fight won by submission?42.5%42.5%36¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Fight won by submission?42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by submission?
42.5%
42.5%
36¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by submission?
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
McKinney to win by KO/TKO?42%42%35¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)McKinney to win by KO/TKO?42%Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
McKinney to win by KO/TKO?
42%
42%
35¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
McKinney to win by KO/TKO?
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- McKinney to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $30
Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney33.5%33.5%33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney33.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney
33.5%
33.5%
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $3K
Miller in Round 132%32%14¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Miller in Round 132%Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Miller in Round 1
32%
32%
14¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Miller in Round 1
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Miller in Round 1
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
McKinney in Round 228%28%6¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)McKinney in Round 228%Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
McKinney in Round 2
28%
28%
6¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
McKinney in Round 2
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- McKinney in Round 2
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Miller to win by KO/TKO?28%28%8¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Miller to win by KO/TKO?28%Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Miller to win by KO/TKO?
28%
28%
8¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Miller to win by KO/TKO?
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Miller to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Decision or Draw27%27%4¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Decision or Draw27%Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
27%
27%
4¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by decision?27%27%5¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Fight won by decision?27%Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by decision?
27%
27%
5¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by decision?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Miller in Round 227%27%4¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Miller in Round 227%Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Miller in Round 2
27%
27%
4¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Miller in Round 2
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Miller in Round 2
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
McKinney in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)McKinney in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
McKinney in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
McKinney in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- McKinney in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Miller in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Miller in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Miller in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Miller in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Miller in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds26.5%26.5%8¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed45¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $222 (2.22x)O/U 2.5 Rounds26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
26.5%
26.5%
8¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
45¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Jim Miller to win in Round 122%Not listed22%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 1 min ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Jim Miller to win in Round 122%Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Jim Miller to win in Round 1
22%
Not listed
22%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Jim Miller to win in Round 1
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jim Miller to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $396
O/U 1.5 Rounds22%22%21¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)O/U 1.5 Rounds22%Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
22%
22%
21¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $2K
Jim Miller to win in Round 212%Not listed12%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Jim Miller to win in Round 212%Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Jim Miller to win in Round 2
12%
Not listed
12%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Jim Miller to win in Round 2
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jim Miller to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $206
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 211%Not listed11%8¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Terrance McKinney to win in Round 211%Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 2
11%
Not listed
11%
8¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 2
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Terrance McKinney to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $407
Decision / Draw / No Contest8%Not listed8%2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Decision / Draw / No Contest8%Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
8%
Not listed
8%
2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Decision / Draw / No Contest
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $2
Fight to Go the Distance?8%8%6¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Fight to Go the Distance?8%Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
8%
8%
6¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 31%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Terrance McKinney to win in Round 31%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 3
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Terrance McKinney to win in Round 3
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Terrance McKinney to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $3
Jim Miller to win in Round 30.5%Not listed0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jim Miller to win in Round 30.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jim Miller to win in Round 3
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jim Miller to win in Round 3
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jim Miller to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Ends before Round 3?
- Ends before Round 2?
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Ends before Round 3? for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney: Round of Victory". Ends before Round 3? leads at 88.5%. Next is Ends before Round 2? at 70%. $7K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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