The Prediction Markets

Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$379K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
INC
73.5%
Polymarket 74.5%(73.5% fair)polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
INC
Last price
74.5%
Fair, margin removed
73.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
CPI
26.1%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
CPI(M)
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
BJP
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
BJP
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Polymarket
BSP
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
BSP
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
CPI
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
CPI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
IUML
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
IUML
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
JD(S)
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
JD(S)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
KEC(M)
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
KEC(M)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
NCP
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
NCP
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Polymarket
RSP
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4227 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
RSP
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • INC
  • CPI
  • BJP

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner". INC last traded at 73.5%. Next is CPI at 26.1%. $379K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 9, 2026.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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