The Prediction Markets

Khamenei # posts October 30 - November 6, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

5 69.6%

Next is 5-9 at 24.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

5 69.6%5-9 24.9%10-14 1.2%15-19 1%20-24 0.7%8 others 2.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
5
69.6%
Polymarket 70%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
5-9
24.9%
Polymarket 25.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 27.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $365 (3.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
5-9
Last price
25.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
27.4¢
Sell Yes
22.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$365 (3.65x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
10-14
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
10-14
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Polymarket
15-19
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
15-19
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
20-24
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-24
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
25-29
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
25-29
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$339
Trade this on Polymarket
60+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
60+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
30-34
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
30-34
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
35-39
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
35-39
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Polymarket
55-59
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
55-59
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$867
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
40-44
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-44
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Polymarket
45-49
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
45-49
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
50-54
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
50-54
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$596
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5
  • 5-9
  • 10-14

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Khamenei # posts October 30 - November 6, 2026?". 5 leads at 69.6%. Next is 5-9 at 24.9%. $10K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 30, 12:00 PM ET and November 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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