The Prediction Markets

LA Mayoral Election: First Round Winner?

Closed
Jun 2, 2026
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 2, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Karen Bass
77%
Polymarket 79%(77% fair)polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karen Bass
Last price
79%
Fair, margin removed
77%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Spencer Pratt
17.6%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman
2.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nithya Raman
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Caruso
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Caruso
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Polymarket
Rae Huang
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rae Huang
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$903
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Miller
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Miller
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Asaad Alnajjar
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Asaad Alnajjar
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Austin Beutner
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Austin Beutner
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
Lindsey Horvath
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lindsey Horvath
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gina Viola
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gina Viola
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$748
Trade this on Polymarket
Monica Rodriguez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3827 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Monica Rodriguez
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Karen Bass
  • Spencer Pratt
  • Nithya Raman

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "LA Mayoral Election: First Round Winner?". Karen Bass last traded at 77%. Next is Spencer Pratt at 17.6%. $20K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 2, 2026.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets