The Prediction Markets

LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$57K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Nithya Raman, ≥2% 44%

Next is Karen Bass, ≥4% at 42%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Karen Bass, ≥4%
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥4%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Karen Bass, ≥2%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥2%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥8%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman 0-4%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 0-4%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 0-4%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 27.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $358 (3.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 0-4%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.9¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$358 (3.58x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Bass, ≥6%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥6%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥10%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Raman 4-8%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 4-8%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥12%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Raman 8-12%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 8-12%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raman 12-16%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 12-16%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 4-8%
11.6%
Polymarket 11.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 4-8%
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Bass, ≥8%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥8%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$630
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥14%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Bass 8-12%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 8-12%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Bass, ≥10%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Bass, ≥10%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nithya Raman, ≥16%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Bass 16-20%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 16-20%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 20+%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 20+%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raman 20+%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 20+%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bass 12-16%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bass 12-16%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raman 16-20%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raman 16-20%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nithya Raman, ≥2%
  • Karen Bass, ≥4%
  • Karen Bass, ≥2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Nithya Raman, ≥2% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?". Nithya Raman, ≥2% leads at 44%. Next is Karen Bass, ≥4% at 42%. $57K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The general runoff election for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the November 3, 2026 general runoff election for Mayor of Los Angeles. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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