The Prediction Markets

Launceston Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Matthew Garwood 65.3%

Next is Kyle Barrett at 22.6%. The venues differ most on Matthew Garwood (Polymarket 62%, Kalshi 57%), a 5.0-point gap.

Matthew Garwood 65.3%Kyle Barrett 22.6%Paul Mallett 4.8%Rose Diamond 4.4%Tim Walker 2.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Matthew Garwood
65.3%
Polymarket 62%(68.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 57%(58.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew Garwood
Last price
62%
Fair, margin removed
68.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Garwood
Last price
57%
Fair, margin removed
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 58¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 67¢.

Kyle Barrett
22.6%
Polymarket 20.5%(22.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%(23.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyle Barrett
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
22.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Barrett
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
23.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

Paul Mallett
4.8%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Mallett
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$806
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Mallett
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.3¢.

Rose Diamond
4.4%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose Diamond
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rose Diamond
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$897
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Tim Walker
2.9%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Walker
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$847
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walker
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matthew Garwood
  • Kyle Barrett
  • Paul Mallett

Live prices for Matthew Garwood

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Launceston Mayoral Election Winner". Matthew Garwood leads at 65.3%. Next is Kyle Barrett at 22.6%. $16K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the City of Launceston as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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