The Prediction Markets

Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election Winner

Closes
Dec 7, 2026, in 33 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Liberal 80%

Next is Guy Cormier at 70%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Liberal
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liberal
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Guy Cormier
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Cormier
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Zumretay Arkin
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zumretay Arkin
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Polymarket
Bloc
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bloc
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
NDP
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
NDP
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nimâ Machouf
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nimâ Machouf
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Mathieu Fournier
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mathieu Fournier
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Conservative
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conservative
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Canada

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Liberal
  • Guy Cormier
  • Zumretay Arkin

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Liberal for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election Winner". Liberal leads at 80%. Next is Guy Cormier at 70%. $3K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Laurier—Sainte-Marie is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets