The Prediction Markets

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$534K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Amal Movement (Amal)
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amal Movement (Amal)
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lebanese Forces (LF)
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lebanese Forces (LF)
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$158K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hezbollah (Hezb)
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hezbollah (Hezb)
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taqaddom Party
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taqaddom Party
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Watani Alliance (Watani)
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Watani Alliance (Watani)
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Polymarket
ReLebanon
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
ReLebanon
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marada Movement (MM)
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marada Movement (MM)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
Union Party (UP)
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Union Party (UP)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
National Liberal Party (NLP)
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
National Liberal Party (NLP)
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Islamic Group (IG)
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Islamic Group (IG)
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mada Party (Mada)
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mada Party (Mada)
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dignity Movement (DM)
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dignity Movement (DM)
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Independence Movement (IM)
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independence Movement (IM)
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Khatt Ahmar
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khatt Ahmar
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Amal Movement (Amal)
  • Lebanese Forces (LF)
  • Hezbollah (Hezb)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner". Amal Movement (Amal) last traded at 6.6%. Next is Lebanese Forces (LF) at 5.6%. $534K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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